Hard to believe we are mid-way through the 2009 given the horrible weather we've had in Boston lately, but the calendar says July, so here we are. Time for my mid year 2009 Boston real estate market report. Unfortunately given the approximately 463 straight days of clouds and rain, I was caught off guard and unaware that it is summer, so the report isn't ready yet (but it will be soon). In the meantime, here is a quick look at the summary stats for the core Boston condo market:
| Core* Boston Condos | Q1 2008
| Q2 2008 | Q1 2009
| Q2 2009
|
# of Sales | 373 | 729 | 209 | 413 |
Avg Price | $774,824 | $792,595 | $735,302 | $710,861 |
Med Price | $525,000 | $565,000 | $495,000 | $505,000 |
$/Sq Ft | $627 | $686 | $611 | $654 |
D.O.M. | 99 | 81 | 132 | 99 |
Total Volume | $289,009.352
| $577,801,755
| $153,678,118
| $293,585,593
|
*core neighborhoods of Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway/Kenmore, Midtown, North End, South End, West End, and WaterfrontLooks like there have been some declines in 2009. No shock there - I already reported some of this (see: Boston luxury real estate market slowdown and 1st quarter 2009 Boston condo market data). But definitely stay tuned as I dig a little deeper into specific neighborhoods and price ranges over the next couple weeks to give us all a really solid understanding of the dynamics of the Boston real estate and condo market.
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[Here is a guest post from Josh Muncey, one of the skilled buyer agents on my team here at Charlesgate Realty Group. Please enjoy his take on foreclosures, and if you have any questions, please comment below or contact Josh.]
I'm sure you've read all about the continued struggles of the Boston real estate market (especially in areas of heavy foreclosures). Maybe you're even looking for ways to capitalize on this foreclosure crisis that you hear about in the news every day? Are you wondering if you can buy a foreclosure in Boston for 50 cents on the dollar?
Well - I haven't seen properties selling for half of their market value, but with a little research and effort, I do think you can get about 80 to 90 cents on the dollar - possibly more in rare circumstances. There certainly are some good deals out there for a savvy buyer but there are some inconveniences associated with purchasing bank owned real estate in Boston that you may need to endure in order to make it happen:
- The property might be missing appliances. Appliances have a mysterious way of disappearing from foreclosed homes (unfortunately). And don't be surprised to see missing copper pipes and electrical wiring in some homes. Whether theft or vandalism, those are some things to look out for that could cost you money to fix or replace up front.
- You may need to remove the contingencies from your offer in order to be the winning bid. It's not just all about price. Banks are looking for "secure" deals without lots of contingencies. Banks look more favorably on offers without inspection contingencies and you may be able to get a property for tens of thousands cheaper if you have no mortgage contingency on your offer as well. They want these properties off the books quickly! However, even if you don’t put an inspection contingency in your offer you can still have one for informational purposes (which I would certainly advise doing). It may even be a good idea to bring a contractor or inspector by the house prior to making an offer.
- REO properties are sold “As is”. Be prepared to make repairs, and have some cash set aside for maintenance - you'll probably need it. Factor this in to your offer to make sure you're really getting the deal you expect.
- You need to act quickly and be prepared for a bidding situation. Foreclosures are a hot commodity for investors right now. The best foreclosures in Boston (value wise) typically sell very quickly and often stir up bidding wars. Typically, banks require homes to stay on the market 5 days prior to reviewing offers (to give potential buyers enough time to view the home). At that point, if the property is a great value, there will be multiple offers in and the bank will ask prospective buyers to submit their best and final offer before a certain deadline. Do your homework, know your bottom line, and be prepared to put your best foot forward.
- You will not be able to make adjustments to the purchase and sale agreement. The bank will use a boiler plate purchase and sale agreement with their addendum attached. Even if you have a real estate attorney that wants to make edits to the contract protecting your interests it is very unlikely the bank will allow that. You need to be ready to deal with that to get to the closing table.
If these issues don’t bother you and you can look beyond a messy property that probably needs a little bit of repair work, then you may be able to find a great investment. You are ready to explore the REO market in Boston for exciting opportunities.
Here are some REOs that have been on the market recently:
• 19 Adelaide Street #3 – $195,000 Jamaica Plain
A second floor 741 square foot condo with deeded parking and storage on a great street. Comparable properties in this building have sold for $240k and up! Granted the appliances are missing and the floors could use a good sanding, I would think that you would definitely recoup those costs in an investment if this were purchased and rehabbed.
• 11 Telegraph Street #1 – $203,900 South Boston
This 2 bed 1 bath on the East Side features 858 square feet, granite countertops, and hardwood floors. Typical renovated 2 beds on the east side of Southie are selling between $300-350k.
• 193 West Canton Street #4 - $394,900 South End
A rare REO property to come on market in one of the downtown Boston neighborhoods, this 700 square foot renovated penthouse is located on a centrally located South End Street with laundry in unit, working fireplace, granite/stainless kitchen and private roof deck overlooking the whole city! I had a client who bid on this property, so I saw the bidding war here first hand!
If you're thinking of buying a foreclosure, please begin by doing your homework first. Learn the neighborhoods and the streets where you want to buy, get great local advice on home values, and look at as many homes as possible to find the best value. I am happy to chat with you about foreclosures in Boston, and share the pipeline of properties in the pre-foreclosure process that may be coming on the market in the near future. Just contact me and let me know how I can help!
What do you think? Make a comment!
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Another fine example of poor journalism when it comes to business reporting was just printed in the Boston Globe today in the article "Advantage, renters". Here's my take (from my Boston Apartments Blog):
There's a simple reason why newspapers like the Boston Globe are
struggling to find readership. They have completely lost the trust of
readers by too often not telling a complete and accurate story with
facts to back it up. I'm not trying to be all Pollyanna here -
reporters have tight deadlines, article size constraints, and now
threats of job losses and pay cuts. I understand all that. But one
thing that is so frustrating to me is not providing all sides of a
story and, too often, a lack of working knowledge about their subject.
Case in point:
Meg Woolhouse wrote this story
in the Globe today about the Boston rental market. She actually
interviewed me on Wednesday for the article so I went out of my way to
help her paint an accurate picture of the market. I gave her a number
of well reasoned facts about the Boston apartment market. Then I had
one of my leasing associates, Jillian Padgett, speak with her for more
"boots on the ground" rental market info, and we even gave her the
contact info for one of our customers to talk to (Justin McGuffee, who
even allowed a Globe photographer into his apartment to take the photo
seen in the article). After all that, the reporter chose only to cherry pick
what she wanted to fit neatly into her idea of what the story should
be. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the job of a reporter
was to find out the facts then create a story, not create a story then
find facts to fit....
>>Read more
Jim Cramer, never at a loss of words (or spastic arm waving for that matter), says we have officially hit the housing market bottom. At least nationally. As for the Boston real estate market, I'm not so sure (which I'll get into below). But first, here's Cramer at his best. Couched in his usual hyperactivity, he does offer some reasonable analysis to back up his claims, which makes this video worth the watch (if you can't see the video below, click here):
Interesting take, and a lot of it makes sense for the national market, but I just don't know that we are there yet for the Boston real estate market (and a few other local areas around the country - Jim specifically mentions New York as well). Plus, Cramer really only discusses the supply side of the real estate market (inventory of homes for sale, new defaults, REO inventory, new housing starts, etc), and I think he avoids some of the other factors that play into real estate market demand, such as rising interest rates, the probable end of the $8000 first time home buyer credit this year, and the substantial slowdown in the luxury segment in many cities (including the luxury Boston real estate market).
All in all, as economic recovery looks more promising, which should increase demand naturally for housing (and there are some signs of life in the pricier segments), I think we are closer to a national - and Boston real estate - market bottom than ever before, but not quite there yet.
What do you think? Make a comment!
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Gotta love disposable income (in the middle of a recession)....Do I even need to write more?
Here's what all the brouhaha is about - would you pay $300,000 for this?:
View Larger MapSince there are more than enough comments by readers on the Boston Globe and Boston Herald sites trying to answer that question (most of them idiotic as usual so take a look if you're in the mood for a chuckle), you probably don't need my opinion on it, so I'll keep it brief and take a slightly different approach. As for the personal decision to spend $300K on a parking space (uncovered, by the way) behind 48 Commonwealth Ave, well, let's just say this is still America and if you've got the money, who am I to tell you what to spend it on? I can probably think of other things to blow $300K on, but if parking is what you're into, enjoy!
But from an economic perspective, does this purchase make any sense?
First, if the spot was 20' x 10' (a very nice sized parking space), then this buyer just paid $1,500 per sq foot for land! That equals the price per foot of a handful of exclusive Boston luxury condo buildings!
I assume the buyer paid cash for the spot, but let's use a typical investment property cash flow example....if you put 25% down on this purchase, you're looking at a loan amount $225,000. Even at today's low mortgage rates, you're looking at a monthly payment of $1,250 or so. This spot could typically rent for $300-$350 per month, so in this scenario you are looking at a loss of $900 per month! Nothing like praying for appreciation I guess.
Then what could a buyer count on for appreciation? To give us an idea, here are average prices for parking spaces in the Back Bay since 2004 (according to the LINK multiple listing service):
2004 - $65,000
2005 - $63,000
2006 - $130,000
2007 - $105,000
2008 - $111,000
2009 - $146,000 (not counting this $300K sale)
Although not steadily upward each year, over the 5 year period, that's a whopping 125% increase in average price for parking spaces!
Parking prices have clearly risen very fast in the Back Bay, and haven't show much sign of slowing down (bubble, anyone?). We are talking about prices more than doubling in the past 5 years even with the recession. But I find it almost an impossibility that this trend will continue over the next five years. I really can't imagine a scenario where this spot will be worth $600K in 2015. But who am I to say?
If prices do continue to rise at this rate, the buyer is looking at a sizable return on investment of maybe 25% per year. But if this turns out to be a parking space "bubble"....well....we've seen how that ends before.
What are your thoughts? Comment below!
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Since my post on the top 5 highest and lowest priced Boston condos sold in April that I wrote last month was so popular, I think I'll make it a recurring post (at least until I get bored with it, which if you know me, happens pretty frequently - variety is the spice of life as they say! - but I'll try).
The range from top to bottom is nearly as remarkable in May as it was in April, and I also included summary statistics of the monthly Boston condo sales (compared to April) for your reference:
Number Sold: 303 (216)
Average list price: $484,113 ($453,668)
Average sale price: $461,457 ($435,240)
Average discount ratio: 4.7% (4.1%)
Average days on market: 106 (126)
Average price per square foot: $458 ($408)
Top 5 Least Expensive Boston condos sold in May 2009
Here are the 5 lowest price condos sold in Boston in May. I have included a photo, quick specs, and the first line of the description from MLS to provide a little background (and entertainment apparently!).
8 Beethoven St #2R
2 Bed - 1 Bath in Roxbury
Sale Price: $23,000
Small condo in need of updating, reflective in price.
10 Esmond St - Unit 3
2 Bed - 1 Bath in Dorchester
Sale Price- $30,000
Small condo in need of some TLC, which is reflective in price.
800 Washington Street - Unit 1
3 Bed - 1 Bath in Dorchester
Sale Price- $35,000
Well priced condominium unit in 3 family. Perfect for investor or owner occupant.
116 Whitfield Street - Unit 1
3 Bed - 1 Bath in Dorchester
Sale Price- $40,000
!!!Needs Owner!!! Needs Owner!!!!Great Condo Close to Parks,Schools And MBTA Systems, Hospitals and Expressway
10 Esmond Street - Unit 4
2 Bed - 1 Bath in Dorchester
Sale Price- $40,000
Lower level unit, 2 bedrooms, separate entrance being sold in as is condition.
Top 5 Most Expensive Boston Condos sold in May 2009
157-159 Newbury Street - Unit 3
3 Bed - 4.5 Bath, Back Bay condo Sale Price-$1,950,000
The
DuBarry. Built in 1888as luxury apartments, this distinctive three
bedroom, four and one half bathroom home offers superbly designed one
floor living with over 2100 square feet of elegant appointments.
505 Tremont Street - Unit 609
2 Bed - 2.5 Bath, South End condo Sale Price- $2,050,000
Spectacular two plus bedroom residence in the South End's premier concierge building "The Atelier 505" offering all of the amenities and conveniences for the most discriminating Buyer.
259 Marlborough Street- Unit PH
4 Bed - 3.5 Bed, Back Bay condo Sale Price- $2,750,000
Magnificent four bedroom penthouse on sunny-side Marlborough Street.
255 Marlborough Street - Unit 2
3 Bed - 2.5 Bath, Back Bay Condo
Sale Price- $3,100,000
New construction –sunny side of Marlboro Street! This beautiful brownstone is being converted to 3 duplex units.
100 Beacon Street - Unit PHA
3 Bed - 3.5 Bath, Back Bay Condo
Sale Price- $6,400,000
Built during the heady, roaring 20s, 100 Beacon Street, with its
finely carved limestone ground floor and grand center entrance, is
representative of Classical Revival buildings of its era on New York's
Park Avenue or Chicago's Gold Coast.
While not quite the range there was in April, we're still looking at a low of $23,000 for a condo in Roxbury, all the way to $3,100,000 for a Back Bay condo on Marlborough Street.
To put that in perspective, parking spaces in the Back Bay routinely sell for around $125,000 (5x the price of the Beethoven Street condo in Roxbury) and this parking space in the Back Bay just sold for $300,000. Yes, that's $300,000 American dollars for a parking space! And not even in a garage! Wow.
What are your thoughts? Comment below!
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Another new development project in Boston is changing tack from a traditional
sales model to the auction format. "The 1850" lofts (located in the bleeding
edge of the South End south of Harrison Ave at 90 Wareham Street - map) are to be auctioned June 28th, at the Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
As I have written before in Longwood Towers in Brookline go to auction, its impossible to say whether or not there will be good deals to be had at the auction. It depends on the level of interest and how many real bidders are there on auction day, but with starting bids of $175,000, there could be some opportunity to pick up a South End condo at a great value. Of course, they have carved out parking from those bids, so parking spaces are available for an additional $35,000.
Location
"The 1850" is located on the far southern part of the South End in the SoWa (South of Washington) area - see map below (from Sowa Sundays). SoWa is considered an "up and coming" part of the South End, and has rapidly undergone positive changes in the past few years in terms of real estate developments (like the 700 Harrison condos) and great new shops, galleries, and restaurants moving in (like Gaslight and Rocca). On top of that, there is the excellent SoWa Open Market and Produce Market that is really becoming a popular place to spend Sundays in the South End. I also included a street view below for an indication of the area directly around the building (although keep in mind these views appear slightly dated).
View Larger Map
The 1850 Lofts
If you need more information (or would like to arrange a tour of the units) please don't hesitate to contact me, but here's a quick rundown of the building and units. The 1850 Lofts marketing team describes the building as "History with Attitude":
That’s The 1850. Old, but not
quaint. Bricks, but not bow fronts. Take an historic South End factory.
Remove the machines, but leave in the character, and add a great big
dose of clean, contemporary design. Put it in a neighborhood that works
for a living, yet lets you walk to great restaurants, transportation
and leisure venues. When you combine old Boston history with new South
End energy, the results can be wonderful. Welcome to the high-style,
high-value condominiums of The 1850.
-
Exposed beams
- Original brick walls
- Lots of large, energy-efficient windows
- High ceilings…many up to 10’ tall
- Wired for cable, Internet and security
- Central air conditioning
- Washer and dryer hook-ups
- Dedicated parking available
- Stainless steel Frigidaire® appliances in kitchens
- Maple cabinets with light or dark stain and contrasting granite countertops
- Tile backsplashes
- Tile in bathrooms
- Upgraded fixtures throughout
These units are "true loft" style, which means brick and wood beam construction, open floorplans (although many can be easily converted into 1 or 2 bedrooms by adding interior walls if desired), and concrete floors. See photo below from developer website:
Auction Info
Sunday, June 28th (check in at 12 noon, auction begins at 1pm) at:
Westin Boston Waterfront
You must register in advance for the auction in order to be eligible to bid, and if you would like buyer representation then you must be sure to have your buyer agent register with you. If you would like to discuss buyer agent service from me or advice on bidding, you can contact me and I'd be happy to chat about that.
Here is the list of units to be auctioned:
Previous sales at The 1850
So, how to figure out how much to bid for these South End condos at the auction? The best way is to look at data from the units that have sold so far to date. There are 60 total units in the building, and 20 units have sold thus far. There have also been a few affordable units set aside and sold previously, so the remaining 35 units will be available at auction. Here's the summary data from the 20 market rate sales:
20 Sold (between June 2008 - May 2009)
Average Price: $396,535
Median Price: $394,500
Price per Sq Ft: $505
Average Day on Market: 76
Here are full details for each of the 20 sold units at The 1850 Lofts (sorry to the text is a little small fit it in, so if you have trouble reading this, please contact me for a larger copy):
The columns are, in order: Sale Price, City, Street/Unit, Square Footage, Price per Sq Ft, Number of Bedrooms/Bathrooms (all listed as lofts with 1 bath, although some layouts could be configured as 1 or 2 beds), Location within building (which floor), Days on Market, and Sale Date.
As you can see, the starting bids are substantially reduced from the previous selling prices so this auction could be a good opportunity to get a condo loft in the South End for a great price. Of course, the units most likely won't sell for the minimum bids, but doing a little research, looking at the units, and determining what you are willing to pay going into the auction could help you secure a good loft for you.
Do you have questions? What are your thoughts? Comment below!
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There's always plenty of news and data released about the sales market (too much at times!), but if you're a renter or a landlord in Boston you may care more about the Boston apartment market instead. So where to turn?
Well - my new site and blog for the Boston apartment market is now live and I just posted an updated Boston rental market report at Boston apartment outlook for summer 2009 which I invite you to take a look at. From now on, most of my commentary and analysis on the apartment market will now "live" on that blog instead since there's a whole site built as a resource for renters and landlords in Boston. Check it out for a minute and see what you think.
Here's a quick summary of the post just in case you don't want to make the jump over there right now (why not??):
The Boston apartment market has remained mostly resilient to the general recession (so far) with vacancy only inching up slightly to the mid 6% range for the downtown core neighborhoods. Asking rents in Boston have been stable in 2009 at an average of $2,477 per month downtown but there have been slightly more concessions offered this year though - things like free month's rent or rental fee being paid by owners, etc.
For more details and info on a few other sub markets (like Cambridge and Brookline), check out the full post here.
Do you have questions? What are your thoughts? Comment below!
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For previous mortgage rate updates (which include graphs of the rates over time) see the following mortgage update posts from May 8, 2009 or April 24, 2009 or April 17, 2009 or see this post about jumbo rates for more about larger loans.
Conforming rates:
Some analysis of the rising rates from the Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rate survey press release:
Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary
Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.29 percent with an average 0.7 point for the
week ending June 4, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 4.91
percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.09 percent."30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates caught up to the recent rise in
long-term bond yields this week to reach a 25-week high," said Frank
Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist." And the
slowdown in the housing market has now detracted from economic growth
for the past 13 quarters, the longest quarterly stretch since at least
1947, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first
quarter of 2009 alone, residential fixed investment shaved 1.4
percentage points off of real GDP growth, the most since third quarter
of 2006.
"Yet, there are signs that the housing market may be moderating.
Housing affordability rose in April to the second highest reading since
January 1971 when records began, according the National Association of
Realtors® (NAR). As a result, pending existing home sales rose for the
third consecutive month by 6.7 percent in April and represented the
largest monthly increase since October 2001. Three of the four regions
experienced increases, led by a 33 percent jump in the Northeast, the
NAR reported."
Here's a chart of the latest average mortgage rates this week by region:
See historical chart of rates since 1971 here
Jumbo mortgage rates:
Here's a graph of jumbo rates over the past year from bankrate.com. The current rate average sits at 6.68%:
We'll see what the bond market brings in the next few weeks and also if there will be any further government actions to try to keep mortgage rates low or push them back down a bit. However, since the rates are completely market driven, there is only so much the government can do. Mortgage rates in the 4%'s may be gone at this point but I'll try to keep you updated!
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Clearly the 1st quarter sales for the Boston luxury real estate market were abysmal - you can read all about that in my post Boston luxury condo market slows to a crawl.
But is that starting to change now?
Super jumbo loan demand rises
There are a couple of factors affecting the luxury market, one of which was written about in the Boston Business Journal today. In the article "Mega mortgages jump as banks underwrite wealthy clients", it describes how many private wealth management banks are offering attractive super jumbo mortgages as a way to entice wealthy customers to switch banks, not just for the mortgage business but also for wealth management services. Some of these banks are offering $1M+ loans for rates as low as 4.5% to attract new business. Since the secondary market for jumbo loans has dried up completely, all of these banks have to hold the loans in their own portfolio, but if a bank is willing to do that, then they can offer great loans that apparently are attracting more borrowers recently.
The article discusses the demand recently for these loans:
The market for a $6 million mortgage is not dead in Boston. In fact,
demand for mega mortgages — $1 million and up — is on the upswing.
Bank and real estate executives say their wealthy clients still remain
wary of the economy’s sharp needles, but acknowledge that with the Dow
Jones Industrial Average up nearly 2,200 points over the past three
months there’s growing confidence about the direction of their
fortunes. That new confidence is liberating wealthy homebuyers to
borrow again.
The article goes on to discuss BNY Mellon specifically as an example of this:
Leading the charge is Bank of New York Mellon’s Boston-based wealth
management division. The company’s in-house mortgage operations in
Boston cater to the nation’s top 1 percent of wealth and have put up
record numbers this year. During the first five months of 2009, BNY Mellon’s jumbo mortgage
activity is up 32 percent on a dollar volume basis, compared with the
year-ago period. Gorman said Boston is one of the best markets.
But is the Boston luxury sales market showing more activity?
Banks are seeing more mortgage activity but is it carrying over into sales activity? As you can see in the quick summary below, sales are still stagnant in Boston, so apparently not (yet?). The chart shows the number of units (condos and single families in Boston) that went under agreement in a given month. That's usually a better indicator of how busy the market was in a given month (as opposed to closed sales which can lag the market by a couple months in most instances).
| UAG (by month) | Jan
| Feb
| Mar
| Apr
| May
|
2009
| 13
| 18 | 20
| 23
| 27
|
2008
| 28
| 49
| 41
| 48
| 47
|
% Change
| -54%
| -63%
| -51%
| -52% | -43%
|
There's been a slight increase in activity over the past couple months, but not a real significant difference. Plus, there are currently 411 active Boston condos and single families that are listed over $1 million on the market now. That equates to a 15 month supply of inventory over $1 million, well above the market for what would be considered a "balanced market". Somehow that inventory needs to work its way off the market.
In Massachusetts statewide, the story is a little different - there definitely has been a more significant uptick in market activity the last couple of months. From 95 under agreements in March, activity jumped to 169 in April and 180 in May. So activity has nearly doubled which makes sense given the bank mortgage data. A hopeful sign, with a caveat that activity is still down versus 2008.
As statewide $1M+ sales pick up will Boston follow suit? I suspect they may, if we continue to see more optimism about an economic recovery later this year. For the wealthy buyers of $1M+ homes, the stock market is coming back and jobs are probably more secure now than a few months ago giving them the confidence required to make a purchasing decision on a new home.
Do you have questions? What are your thoughts? Comment below!
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